Unit 51 buck deer, 4th rifle season
How many preference points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
110 adult residents put this hunt first; 33 drew (30%). Drawn out at 2 preference points: 14 of 40 applicants with 2 drew.
Drawn out at 2 points
23 adult nonresidents put this hunt first; 10 drew (43%). Drawn out at 2 preference points: 2 of 7 applicants with 2 drew. 89% of applicants with more points drew.
Drawn out at 2 points
Compare every Colorado deer hunt at your point level →
Odds by preference points
Residents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 3 | 14 | 14 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 2 | 40 | 14 | 1 in 2.9 | |
| 1 | 27 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 24 | 0 | — | |
| All | 110 | 33 | 1 in 3.3 |
Nonresidents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 7 | 7 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 in 2.0 | |
| 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 in 3.5 | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| All | 23 | 10 | 1 in 2.3 |
Trends, 2024–2026
"Cutoff" is the preference point level where licenses ran out that year (CPW's "drawn out at" level).
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 99 | 37 | 1 in 2.7 | 2 |
| 2026 | 110 | 33 | 1 in 3.3 | 2 |
Drawn out at: 2 in 2024, 2 in 2026. The bar has held steady at about 2 points. Applicants rose 11% since 2024.
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 15 | 6 | 1 in 2.5 | 2 |
| 2026 | 23 | 10 | 1 in 2.3 | 2 |
Drawn out at: 2 in 2024, 2 in 2026. The bar has held steady at about 2 points. Applicants rose 53% since 2024.
How this draw works
Colorado draws limited licenses by preference points, and only your first choice uses them. Licenses go to the applicants with the most points first; at the level where they run out (the "drawn out at" level) applicants are drawn at random. If you don't draw your first choice, you gain a point. Nonresidents could get at most 25% of this hunt's licenses. CPW big game hunting.
About the numbers. These are adult first-choice applicants, straight from CPW's 2026 draw recap. Youth and landowner licenses are drawn separately. The estimated chance is the share who actually drew at each point level, filled in from the cutoff where nobody held that many points. Applicant pools change every year. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Unit 51
- Buck deer, muzzleloader season DM051O1M · 80 applicants
- Buck deer, 2nd rifle season DM051O2R · 164 applicants
- Buck deer, 3rd rifle season DM051O3R · 161 applicants
- Buck deer, private land only, season 5, rifle DM051P5R · 129 applicants
- Doe deer, muzzleloader season DF051O1M · 28 applicants
- Doe deer, private land only, season 5, rifle DF051P5R · 51 applicants
- Either-sex deer, archery season DE051O1A · 187 applicants
- Bull elk, muzzleloader season EM051O1M · 72 applicants
- Bull elk, 1st rifle season EM051O1R · 60 applicants
- Bull elk, 2nd rifle season EM051O2R · 51 applicants
- Bull elk, 3rd rifle season EM051O3R · 35 applicants
- Bull elk, 4th rifle season EM051O4R · 26 applicants