Unit 51 bull elk, muzzleloader season
How many preference points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
72 adult residents put this hunt first; 29 drew (40%). Drawn out at 1 preference point: 11 of 23 applicants with 1 drew. 95% of applicants with more points drew.
Drawn out at 1 points
30 adult nonresidents put this hunt first; 10 drew (33%). Drawn out at 3 preference points: 2 of 7 applicants with 3 drew.
Drawn out at 3 points
Compare every Colorado elk hunt at your point level →
Odds by preference points
Residents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 in 1.3 | |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 1 | 23 | 11 | 1 in 2.1 | |
| 0 | 30 | 0 | — | |
| All | 72 | 29 | 1 in 2.5 |
Nonresidents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 4 | 6 | 6 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 3 | 7 | 2 | 1 in 3.5 | |
| 2 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| All | 30 | 10 | 1 in 3.0 |
Trends, 2024–2026
"Cutoff" is the preference point level where licenses ran out that year (CPW's "drawn out at" level).
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 57 | 22 | 1 in 2.6 | 1 |
| 2025 | 61 | 33 | 1 in 1.8 | 1 |
| 2026 | 72 | 29 | 1 in 2.5 | 1 |
Drawn out at: 1 in 2024, 1 in 2025, 1 in 2026. The bar has held steady at about 1 points. Applicants rose 26% since 2024.
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 33 | 8 | 1 in 4.1 | 2 |
| 2025 | 29 | 11 | 1 in 2.6 | 3 |
| 2026 | 30 | 10 | 1 in 3.0 | 3 |
Drawn out at: 2 in 2024, 3 in 2025, 3 in 2026. If that trend holds, expect about 4 points to be needed in 2027. Applicants fell 9% since 2024.
How this draw works
Colorado draws limited licenses by preference points, and only your first choice uses them. Licenses go to the applicants with the most points first; at the level where they run out (the "drawn out at" level) applicants are drawn at random. If you don't draw your first choice, you gain a point. Nonresidents could get at most 25% of this hunt's licenses. CPW big game hunting.
About the numbers. These are adult first-choice applicants, straight from CPW's 2026 draw recap. Youth and landowner licenses are drawn separately. The estimated chance is the share who actually drew at each point level, filled in from the cutoff where nobody held that many points. Applicant pools change every year. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Unit 51
- Bull elk, 1st rifle season EM051O1R · 60 applicants
- Bull elk, 2nd rifle season EM051O2R · 51 applicants
- Bull elk, 3rd rifle season EM051O3R · 35 applicants
- Bull elk, 4th rifle season EM051O4R · 26 applicants
- Cow elk, muzzleloader season EF051O1M · 20 applicants
- Cow elk, 1st rifle season EF051O1R · 23 applicants
- Cow elk, 2nd rifle season EF051O2R · 17 applicants
- Cow elk, 3rd rifle season EF051O3R · 18 applicants
- Cow elk, 4th rifle season EF051O4R · 5 applicants
- Cow elk, private land only, season 5, rifle EF051P5R · 77 applicants
- Either-sex elk, archery season EE051O1A · 168 applicants
- Buck deer, muzzleloader season DM051O1M · 80 applicants