Manti/San Rafael limited-entry buck deer, muzzleloader
How many bonus points it took to draw this hunt in 2025, and your estimated chance at every point level.
197 residents applied for 37 permits (1 in 5.3 overall). Everyone with 11 or more points drew. At 10 points, 5 of 6 applicants drew bonus permits. The other 18 permits were drawn at random: an estimated 2.2% chance at 0 points, rising to 22% at 9 points.
Sure draw at 11+ points
37 nonresidents applied for 4 permits (1 in 9.3 overall). Everyone with 16 or more points drew. The other 2 permits were drawn at random: an estimated 0.84% chance at 0 points, rising to 13% at 14 points.
Sure draw at 16+ points
Compare every deer hunt at your point level →
Odds by bonus points
Residents
| Bonus points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 14 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 11 | 6 | 6 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 10 | 6 | 5 | 1 in 1.2 | |
| 9 | 10 | 0 | — | |
| 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 in 3.0 | |
| 7 | 14 | 2 | 1 in 7.0 | |
| 6 | 17 | 0 | — | |
| 5 | 13 | 3 | 1 in 4.3 | |
| 4 | 18 | 2 | 1 in 9.0 | |
| 3 | 24 | 5 | 1 in 4.8 | |
| 2 | 21 | 3 | 1 in 7.0 | |
| 1 | 24 | 1 | 1 in 24.0 | |
| 0 | 30 | 0 | — | |
| All | 197 | 37 | 1 in 5.3 |
Nonresidents
| Bonus points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 14 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 13 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 11 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 10 | 5 | 1 | 1 in 5.0 | |
| 9 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 8 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 7 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 6 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 5 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| All | 37 | 4 | 1 in 9.3 |
Trends, 2024–2025
"Sure at" is the fewest bonus points where every applicant drew through the bonus pool that year.
| Year | Applicants | Permits | Odds | Sure at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 181 | 35 | 1 in 5.2 | 10 |
| 2025 | 197 | 37 | 1 in 5.3 | 11 |
Points for a sure draw: 10 in 2024, 11 in 2025. The bar is rising at least one point a year, as fast as applicants earn points. Applicants rose 9% since 2024.
| Year | Applicants | Permits | Odds | Sure at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | 4 | 1 in 5.3 | 14 |
| 2025 | 37 | 4 | 1 in 9.3 | 16 |
Points for a sure draw: 14 in 2024, 16 in 2025. The bar is rising at least one point a year, as fast as applicants earn points. Applicants rose 76% since 2024.
How this draw works
Utah reserves half of each hunt's permits for the applicants with the most bonus points. The rest are drawn at random from everyone left, and each bonus point gives you one extra random number; your best number is the one used. Drawing a permit resets your points for that species to zero. Utah DWR's explanation.
About the estimated chance. Actual odds at a single point level jump around because only a few permits are drawn at random. The estimate applies the draw's own rules to this year's applicant pool. Across all 2025 Utah hunts, it predicts the number of permits drawn at each point range to within about 1%. Applicant numbers change every year, so treat it as a guide. How we check and estimate.