Unit 104 buck pronghorn, 1st rifle season
How many preference points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
253 adult residents put this hunt first; 58 drew (23%). Drawn out at 2 preference points: 38 of 65 applicants with 2 drew. 95% of applicants with more points drew.
Drawn out at 2 points
11 adult nonresidents put this hunt first; 3 drew (27%). Drawn out at 2 preference points: 2 of 2 applicants with 2 drew.
Drawn out at 2 points
Compare every Colorado pronghorn hunt at your point level →
Odds by preference points
Residents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 14 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 1 in 1.1 | |
| 2 | 65 | 38 | 1 in 1.7 | |
| 1 | 82 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 85 | 0 | — | |
| All | 253 | 58 | 1 in 4.4 |
Nonresidents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| All | 11 | 3 | 1 in 3.7 |
Trends, 2024–2026
"Cutoff" is the preference point level where licenses ran out that year (CPW's "drawn out at" level).
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 244 | 86 | 1 in 2.8 | 1 |
| 2025 | 283 | 79 | 1 in 3.6 | 1 |
| 2026 | 253 | 58 | 1 in 4.4 | 2 |
Drawn out at: 1 in 2024, 1 in 2025, 2 in 2026. If that trend holds, expect about 2 points to be needed in 2027.
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 14 | 4 | 1 in 3.5 | 2 |
| 2025 | 13 | 2 | 1 in 6.5 | 3 |
| 2026 | 11 | 3 | 1 in 3.7 | 2 |
Drawn out at: 2 in 2024, 3 in 2025, 2 in 2026. The bar has held steady at about 2 points. Applicants fell 21% since 2024.
How this draw works
Colorado draws limited licenses by preference points, and only your first choice uses them. Licenses go to the applicants with the most points first; at the level where they run out (the "drawn out at" level) applicants are drawn at random. If you don't draw your first choice, you gain a point. Nonresidents could get at most 25% of this hunt's licenses. CPW big game hunting.
About the numbers. These are adult first-choice applicants, straight from CPW's 2026 draw recap. Youth and landowner licenses are drawn separately. The estimated chance is the share who actually drew at each point level, filled in from the cutoff where nobody held that many points. Applicant pools change every year. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Unit 104
- Buck pronghorn, muzzleloader season AM104O1M · 61 applicants
- Doe pronghorn, 1st rifle season AF104O1R · 55 applicants
- Doe pronghorn, Ranching for Wildlife, season 1, rifle AF104W1R · 71 applicants
- Either-sex pronghorn, Ranching for Wildlife, season 1, rifle AE104W1R · 381 applicants
- Buck deer, late season, rifle DM104L1R · 85 applicants
- Buck deer, 1st rifle season DM104O1R · 77 applicants
- Buck deer, muzzleloader season DM104O2M · 17 applicants
- Doe deer, late season, rifle DF104L1R · 10 applicants
- Doe deer, late season 3, rifle DF104L3R · 33 applicants
- Doe deer, 1st rifle season DF104O1R · 7 applicants
- Doe deer, muzzleloader season DF104O2M · 5 applicants
- Doe deer, Ranching for Wildlife, season 1, rifle DF104W1R · 56 applicants