Unit 4 buck pronghorn, muzzleloader season
How many preference points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
41 adult residents put this hunt first; 16 drew (39%). Drawn out at 5 preference points: 3 of 6 applicants with 5 drew.
Drawn out at 5 points
20 adult nonresidents put this hunt first; 5 drew (25%). Drawn out at 7 preference points: 3 of 3 applicants with 7 drew. 67% of applicants with more points drew.
Drawn out at 7 points
Compare every Colorado pronghorn hunt at your point level →
Odds by preference points
Residents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 6 | 9 | 9 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 in 2.0 | |
| 4 | 9 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| All | 41 | 16 | 1 in 2.6 |
Nonresidents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 in 2.0 | |
| 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 6 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| All | 20 | 5 | 1 in 4.0 |
Trends, 2024–2026
"Cutoff" is the preference point level where licenses ran out that year (CPW's "drawn out at" level).
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27 | 5 | 1 in 5.4 | 5 |
| 2025 | 44 | 10 | 1 in 4.4 | 6 |
| 2026 | 41 | 16 | 1 in 2.6 | 5 |
Drawn out at: 5 in 2024, 6 in 2025, 5 in 2026. The bar has held steady at about 5 points. Applicants rose 52% since 2024.
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 15 | 2 | 1 in 7.5 | 8 |
| 2025 | 13 | 3 | 1 in 4.3 | 6 |
| 2026 | 20 | 5 | 1 in 4.0 | 7 |
Drawn out at: 8 in 2024, 6 in 2025, 7 in 2026. The bar has been falling. Applicants rose 33% since 2024.
How this draw works
Colorado draws limited licenses by preference points, and only your first choice uses them. Licenses go to the applicants with the most points first; at the level where they run out (the "drawn out at" level) applicants are drawn at random. If you don't draw your first choice, you gain a point. Nonresidents could get at most 25% of this hunt's licenses. CPW big game hunting.
About the numbers. These are adult first-choice applicants, straight from CPW's 2026 draw recap. Youth and landowner licenses are drawn separately. The estimated chance is the share who actually drew at each point level, filled in from the cutoff where nobody held that many points. Applicant pools change every year. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Unit 4
- Buck pronghorn, archery season AM004O1A · 85 applicants
- Buck pronghorn, 1st rifle season AM004O1R · 441 applicants
- Buck pronghorn, private land only, season 5, rifle AM004P5R · 68 applicants
- Buck pronghorn, Ranching for Wildlife, season 1, rifle AM004W1R · 64 applicants
- Buck pronghorn, Ranching for Wildlife, season 2, rifle AM004W2R · 33 applicants
- Buck deer, 2nd rifle season DM004O2R · 316 applicants
- Buck deer, 3rd rifle season DM004O3R · 180 applicants
- Buck deer, 4th rifle season DM004O4R · 92 applicants
- Doe deer, 2nd rifle season DF004O2R · 90 applicants
- Doe deer, 3rd rifle season DF004O3R · 34 applicants
- Doe deer, split season 4, rifle DF004S4R · 12 applicants
- Doe deer, Ranching for Wildlife, season 1, rifle DF004W1R · 12 applicants