Unit 12 either-sex elk, muzzleloader season
How many preference points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
142 adult residents put this hunt first; 72 drew (51%). Drawn out at 1 preference point: 36 of 53 applicants with 1 drew. 84% of applicants with more points drew.
Drawn out at 1 points
148 adult nonresidents put this hunt first; 25 drew (17%). Drawn out at 9 preference points: 4 of 5 applicants with 9 drew. 94% of applicants with more points drew. 4 drew below the cutoff, through the hybrid random draw (about 12% of eligible applicants with 5+ points).
Drawn out at 9 points
Compare every Colorado elk hunt at your point level →
Odds by preference points
Residents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 in 1.5 | |
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 1 in 1.3 | |
| 2 | 23 | 20 | 1 in 1.2 | |
| 1 | 53 | 36 | 1 in 1.5 | |
| 0 | 46 | 0 | — | |
| All | 142 | 72 | 1 in 2.0 |
Nonresidents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 in 2.0 | |
| 11 | 6 | 6 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 10 | 5 | 5 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 9 | 5 | 4 | 1 in 1.3 | |
| 8 | 5 | 4 | 1 in 1.3 | |
| 7 | 10 | 0 | — | |
| 6 | 8 | 0 | — | |
| 5 | 11 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 14 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 12 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 12 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 17 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 36 | 0 | — | |
| All | 148 | 25 | 1 in 5.9 |
Trends, 2024–2026
"Cutoff" is the preference point level where licenses ran out that year (CPW's "drawn out at" level).
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 97 | 71 | 1 in 1.4 | 0 |
| 2025 | 159 | 70 | 1 in 2.3 | 1 |
| 2026 | 142 | 72 | 1 in 2.0 | 1 |
Drawn out at: 0 in 2024, 1 in 2025, 1 in 2026. If that trend holds, expect about 2 points to be needed in 2027. Applicants rose 46% since 2024.
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 71 | 25 | 1 in 2.8 | 5 |
| 2025 | 116 | 25 | 1 in 4.6 | 8 |
| 2026 | 148 | 25 | 1 in 5.9 | 9 |
Drawn out at: 5 in 2024, 8 in 2025, 9 in 2026. The bar is rising at least one point a year, as fast as applicants earn points. Applicants rose 108% since 2024.
How this draw works
Colorado draws limited licenses by preference points, and only your first choice uses them. Licenses go to the applicants with the most points first; at the level where they run out (the "drawn out at" level) applicants are drawn at random. If you don't draw your first choice, you gain a point. Nonresidents could get at most 25% of this hunt's licenses. CPW big game hunting.
About the numbers. These are adult first-choice applicants, straight from CPW's 2026 draw recap. Youth and landowner licenses are drawn separately. The estimated chance is the share who actually drew at each point level, filled in from the cutoff where nobody held that many points. Applicant pools change every year. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Unit 12
- Bull elk, 4th rifle season EM012O4R · 25 applicants
- Cow elk, muzzleloader season EF012O1M · 33 applicants
- Cow elk, 2nd rifle season EF012O2R · 284 applicants
- Cow elk, 3rd rifle season EF012O3R · 151 applicants
- Either-sex elk, archery season EE012O1A · 503 applicants
- Either-sex elk, private land only, season 1, muzzleloader EE012P1M · 7 applicants
- Buck deer, early season, rifle DM012E1R · 72 applicants
- Buck deer, muzzleloader season DM012O1M · 35 applicants
- Buck deer, 2nd rifle season DM012O2R · 269 applicants
- Buck deer, 3rd rifle season DM012O3R · 213 applicants
- Buck deer, 4th rifle season DM012O4R · 65 applicants
- Doe deer, muzzleloader season DF012O1M · 19 applicants