Unit 4 either-sex elk, muzzleloader season
How many preference points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
217 adult residents put this hunt first; 92 drew (42%). Drawn out at 1 preference point: 23 of 60 applicants with 1 drew. 93% of applicants with more points drew.
Drawn out at 1 points
178 adult nonresidents put this hunt first; 32 drew (18%). Drawn out at 7 preference points: 10 of 17 applicants with 7 drew. 85% of applicants with more points drew.
Drawn out at 7 points
Compare every Colorado elk hunt at your point level →
Odds by preference points
Residents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 in 2.0 | |
| 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 4 | 10 | 10 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 3 | 27 | 23 | 1 in 1.2 | |
| 2 | 32 | 32 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 1 | 60 | 23 | 1 in 2.6 | |
| 0 | 83 | 0 | — | |
| All | 217 | 92 | 1 in 2.4 |
Nonresidents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 13 | 3 | 3 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 in 2.0 | |
| 11 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 9 | 6 | 5 | 1 in 1.2 | |
| 8 | 11 | 9 | 1 in 1.2 | |
| 7 | 17 | 10 | 1 in 1.7 | |
| 6 | 18 | 0 | — | |
| 5 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 18 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 19 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 23 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 26 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 25 | 0 | — | |
| All | 178 | 32 | 1 in 5.6 |
Trends, 2024–2026
"Cutoff" is the preference point level where licenses ran out that year (CPW's "drawn out at" level).
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 155 | 35 | 1 in 4.4 | 2 |
| 2025 | 185 | 74 | 1 in 2.5 | 2 |
| 2026 | 217 | 92 | 1 in 2.4 | 1 |
Drawn out at: 2 in 2024, 2 in 2025, 1 in 2026. The bar has been falling. Applicants rose 40% since 2024.
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 101 | 12 | 1 in 8.4 | 7 |
| 2025 | 139 | 25 | 1 in 5.6 | 6 |
| 2026 | 178 | 32 | 1 in 5.6 | 7 |
Drawn out at: 7 in 2024, 6 in 2025, 7 in 2026. The bar has held steady at about 7 points. Applicants rose 76% since 2024.
How this draw works
Colorado draws limited licenses by preference points, and only your first choice uses them. Licenses go to the applicants with the most points first; at the level where they run out (the "drawn out at" level) applicants are drawn at random. If you don't draw your first choice, you gain a point. Nonresidents could get at most 25% of this hunt's licenses. CPW big game hunting.
About the numbers. These are adult first-choice applicants, straight from CPW's 2026 draw recap. Youth and landowner licenses are drawn separately. The estimated chance is the share who actually drew at each point level, filled in from the cutoff where nobody held that many points. Applicant pools change every year. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Unit 4
- Cow elk, muzzleloader season EF004O1M · 49 applicants
- Cow elk, 2nd rifle season EF004O2R · 157 applicants
- Cow elk, 3rd rifle season EF004O3R · 85 applicants
- Cow elk, private land only, season 1, muzzleloader EF004P1M · 3 applicants
- Cow elk, Ranching for Wildlife, season 1, rifle EF004W1R · 51 applicants
- Cow elk, Ranching for Wildlife, season 2, rifle EF004W2R · 35 applicants
- Cow elk, Ranching for Wildlife, season 3, rifle EF004W3R · 63 applicants
- Cow elk, Ranching for Wildlife, season 5, rifle EF004W5R · 7 applicants
- Either-sex elk, archery season EE004O1A · 473 applicants
- Either-sex elk, 4th rifle season EE004O4R · 84 applicants
- Either-sex elk, private land only, season 1, muzzleloader EE004P1M · 14 applicants
- Either-sex elk, Ranching for Wildlife, season 1, rifle EE004W1R · 38 applicants