Unit 511 buck deer, 4th rifle season
How many preference points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
132 adult residents put this hunt first; 17 drew (13%). Drawn out at 4 preference points: 1 of 16 applicants with 4 drew.
Drawn out at 4 points
23 adult nonresidents put this hunt first; 6 drew (26%). Drawn out at 6 preference points: 3 of 4 applicants with 6 drew.
Drawn out at 6 points
Compare every Colorado deer hunt at your point level →
Odds by preference points
Residents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 5 | 10 | 10 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 4 | 16 | 1 | 1 in 16.0 | |
| 3 | 21 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 26 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 32 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 21 | 0 | — | |
| All | 132 | 17 | 1 in 7.8 |
Nonresidents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 in 1.3 | |
| 5 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| All | 23 | 6 | 1 in 3.8 |
Trends, 2024–2026
"Cutoff" is the preference point level where licenses ran out that year (CPW's "drawn out at" level).
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 103 | 23 | 1 in 4.5 | 3 |
| 2025 | 117 | 18 | 1 in 6.5 | 4 |
| 2026 | 132 | 17 | 1 in 7.8 | 4 |
Drawn out at: 3 in 2024, 4 in 2025, 4 in 2026. If that trend holds, expect about 4 points to be needed in 2027. Applicants rose 28% since 2024.
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | 7 | 1 in 3.4 | 4 |
| 2025 | 21 | 6 | 1 in 3.5 | 5 |
| 2026 | 23 | 6 | 1 in 3.8 | 6 |
Drawn out at: 4 in 2024, 5 in 2025, 6 in 2026. The bar is rising at least one point a year, as fast as applicants earn points.
How this draw works
Colorado draws limited licenses by preference points, and only your first choice uses them. Licenses go to the applicants with the most points first; at the level where they run out (the "drawn out at" level) applicants are drawn at random. If you don't draw your first choice, you gain a point. Nonresidents could get at most 25% of this hunt's licenses. CPW big game hunting.
About the numbers. These are adult first-choice applicants, straight from CPW's 2026 draw recap. Youth and landowner licenses are drawn separately. The estimated chance is the share who actually drew at each point level, filled in from the cutoff where nobody held that many points. Applicant pools change every year. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Unit 511
- Buck deer, private land only, season 4, rifle DM511P4R · 34 applicants
- Doe deer, 2nd rifle season DF511O2R · 95 applicants
- Doe deer, 3rd rifle season DF511O3R · 63 applicants
- Doe deer, private land only, season 2, rifle DF511P2R · 9 applicants
- Doe deer, private land only, season 3, rifle DF511P3R · 15 applicants
- Bull elk, 1st rifle season EM511O1R · 75 applicants
- Bull elk, 4th rifle season EM511O4R · 15 applicants
- Cow elk, 1st rifle season EF511O1R · 40 applicants
- Cow elk, 2nd rifle season EF511O2R · 100 applicants
- Cow elk, 3rd rifle season EF511O3R · 51 applicants
- Cow elk, 4th rifle season EF511O4R · 8 applicants
- Cow elk, private land only, season 5, rifle EF511P5R · 58 applicants