Show Low Creek Hunt Area limited opportunity antlerless elk, HAM, Oct 2–8
How many bonus points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
28 residents applied (17 as their 1st choice, 11 as their 2nd) and 10 drew a permit (1 in 2.8 overall). Everyone with 6 or more points who put this hunt first drew. 2 permits went through the bonus pass (lowest level: 3 points). The other 8 permits were drawn at random: an estimated 14% chance at 0 points, rising to 37% at 2 points.
Sure draw at 6+ points
1 nonresidents applied (1 as their 1st choice, 0 as their 2nd), but no permits went to nonresidents in the first two passes.
Compare every Arizona elk hunt at your point level →
Odds by bonus points
Residents
| Bonus points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 in 5.0 | |
| 2 | 9 | 2 | 1 in 4.5 | |
| 1 | 10 | 5 | 1 in 2.0 | |
| 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 in 2.0 | |
| All | 28 | 10 | 1 in 2.8 |
Nonresidents
| Bonus points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| All | 1 | 0 | — |
Why didn't everyone above the bonus cutoff draw? AZGFD counts 1st- and 2nd-choice applicants together. 1 applicant above the cutoff listed this hunt 2nd and had already drawn a 1st choice, so the green levels show 100% for anyone who puts this hunt first.
Hunt details
| Hunt number | 3124 (2026 draw; AZGFD renumbers hunts every year) |
|---|---|
| Season | Oct 2 - Oct 8, 2026 |
| Open areas | Show Low Creek Hunt Area |
| Legal animal | Antlerless elk |
| Permits authorized | 10 (nonresidents can get at most 10%) |
| Weapons | HAM: handgun, archery or muzzleloader |
From AZGFD's 2026 hunt-draw booklet. Check the current regulations for boundaries, restrictions and the notes on each hunt.
Trends, 2025–2026
"Sure at" is the fewest bonus points where every applicant drew that year. Hunt numbers change every year, so earlier years are matched by unit, legal animal, weapon and season.
| Year | Applicants | Permits | Odds | Sure at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21 | 10 | 1 in 2.1 | 8 |
| 2026 | 28 | 10 | 1 in 2.8 | 6 |
Points for a sure draw: 8 in 2025, 6 in 2026. The bar has been falling. Applicants rose 33% since 2025.
| Year | Applicants | Permits | Odds | Sure at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| 2026 | 1 | 0 | — | — |
How this draw works
Arizona gives 20% of each hunt's permits to the applicants with the most bonus points (the "bonus pass"), checking 1st and 2nd choices. Everyone left is then drawn at random for their 1st and 2nd choices, and each bonus point gives you one extra random number; your best number is the one used. 3rd to 5th choices only get what's left. Nonresidents can get at most 10% of a hunt's permits. Drawing a permit resets your points for that species to zero. AZGFD's draw information.
About the numbers. AZGFD's Bonus Point Report counts permits for 1st- and 2nd-choice applicants together, so "applicants" here means everyone who listed this hunt as a 1st or 2nd choice, and "drew" means permits issued in the bonus pass and the 1st/2nd-choice pass. The estimated chance applies the draw's own rules to this year's applicants; it's an estimate, not a promise. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Show Low Creek Hunt Area
- Limited opportunity antlerless elk, Jul 31–Aug 6, ham 3119 · 45 applicants
- Limited opportunity antlerless elk, Aug 7–13, ham 3120 · 29 applicants
- Limited opportunity antlerless elk, Aug 14–20, ham 3121 · 13 applicants
- Limited opportunity antlerless elk, Aug 21–27, ham 3122 · 6 applicants
- Limited opportunity antlerless elk, Aug 28–Sep 3, ham 3123 · 20 applicants