Kachina Peaks Wilderness Hunt Area bull elk, muzzleloader, Oct 2–8
How many bonus points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
54 residents applied (32 as their 1st choice, 22 as their 2nd) and 4 drew a permit (1 in 13.5 overall). Everyone with 11 or more points who put this hunt first drew. 1 permit went through the bonus pass (lowest level: 9 points). The other 3 permits were drawn at random: an estimated 1.5% chance at 0 points, rising to 9.9% at 6 points.
Sure draw at 11+ points
18 nonresidents applied (8 as their 1st choice, 10 as their 2nd) and 1 drew a permit (1 in 18.0 overall). The only permit was drawn at random: an estimated 1.2% chance at 0 points, rising to 13% at 10 points.
No sure draw
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Odds by bonus points
Residents
| Bonus points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 in 3.0 | |
| 6 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 5 | 7 | 1 | 1 in 7.0 | |
| 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 in 4.0 | |
| 3 | 12 | 1 | 1 in 12.0 | |
| 2 | 17 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| All | 54 | 4 | 1 in 13.5 |
Nonresidents
| Bonus points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 6 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 5 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 in 3.0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| All | 18 | 1 | 1 in 18.0 |
Why didn't everyone above the bonus cutoff draw? AZGFD counts 1st- and 2nd-choice applicants together. 2 applicants above the cutoff listed this hunt 2nd and had already drawn their 1st choice, so the green levels show 100% for anyone who puts this hunt first.
Hunt details
| Hunt number | 3103 (2026 draw; AZGFD renumbers hunts every year) |
|---|---|
| Season | Oct 2 - Oct 8, 2026 |
| Open areas | Kachina Peaks Wilderness Hunt Area |
| Legal animal | Bull elk |
| Permits authorized | 5 (nonresidents can get at most 10%) |
From AZGFD's 2026 hunt-draw booklet. Check the current regulations for boundaries, restrictions and the notes on each hunt.
Trends, 2025–2026
"Sure at" is the fewest bonus points where every applicant drew that year. Hunt numbers change every year, so earlier years are matched by unit, legal animal, weapon and season.
| Year | Applicants | Permits | Odds | Sure at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 60 | 4 | 1 in 15.0 | — |
| 2026 | 54 | 4 | 1 in 13.5 | 11 |
Applicants fell 10% since 2025.
| Year | Applicants | Permits | Odds | Sure at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24 | 1 | 1 in 24.0 | — |
| 2026 | 18 | 1 | 1 in 18.0 | — |
Applicants fell 25% since 2025.
How this draw works
Arizona gives 20% of each hunt's permits to the applicants with the most bonus points (the "bonus pass"), checking 1st and 2nd choices. Everyone left is then drawn at random for their 1st and 2nd choices, and each bonus point gives you one extra random number; your best number is the one used. 3rd to 5th choices only get what's left. Nonresidents can get at most 10% of a hunt's permits. Drawing a permit resets your points for that species to zero. AZGFD's draw information.
About the numbers. AZGFD's Bonus Point Report counts permits for 1st- and 2nd-choice applicants together, so "applicants" here means everyone who listed this hunt as a 1st or 2nd choice, and "drew" means permits issued in the bonus pass and the 1st/2nd-choice pass. The estimated chance applies the draw's own rules to this year's applicants; it's an estimate, not a promise. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Kachina Peaks Wilderness Hunt Area
- Antlerless elk, Oct 16–22 3046 · 115 applicants
- Bull elk, Sep 11–24, archery 3137 · 117 applicants